Climate News 10-26-01

Published on Friday, October 26, 2001 by the Inter Press Service
Going Backwards
New Studies Cite Evidence of Global Warming
by Danielle Knight

WASHINGTON - Climate warming already is thawing ice in Alaska and disrupting
annual cycles in the life of plants and animals in Europe and North America,
according to two new scientific studies released Thursday.
The studies, published in 'Science' magazine, add to the growing body of
research providing anecdotal evidence that regional changes in climate,
particularly increases in temperature, are causing glaciers to shrink,
permafrost to thaw, and wildlife behavior to change.

''You are never 100 percent sure but what seems clear is that these changes
fit very well with a general trend of warming linked with human activities,''
Josep Penuelas, a scientist at the Autonomous University in Barcelona who
authored one of the studies, told IPS.

The findings were released just before international climate treaty
negotiators are scheduled to meet in Morocco Oct. 29 - Nov. 9.

''An increasing number of studies now report changes in plant and animal
cycles from a wide range of regions, from cold and wet to warm and dry
ecosystems,'' Penuelas said in his peer-reviewed article, 'Response to a
Warming World.'

In the Mediterranean, the leaves of most deciduous plant species now unfold
on average 16 days earlier and fall on average 13 days later than they did 50
years ago. From Scandinavia to Macedonia, researchers have observed a six-day
shift to earlier leaf unfolding and a five-day delay in autumn leaf coloring
over the past 30 years.

Remote sensing satellite data further validate these ground observations,
said the study. New data suggests that the growing season has become nearly
18 days longer during the past two decades in Eurasia and 12 days longer in
North America.

All the observed plant changes ''are highly correlated with temperature
changes,'' Penuelas said.

Insect, amphibian, and bird life cycle changes, according to the study, were
also observed. Butterflies now appear 11 days earlier than in 1952 in
northeast Spain.

Frog calling, which starts when the weather gets warmer, has been reported to
occur about 10 days earlier between 1990 and 1999 than between 1900 and 1912
in New York State. Surveys in Britain showed birds laid their eggs nine days
earlier in 1995 than in 1971.

These changes in animal and plant cycles could prove to be harmful, said the
study, because migratory species could wrongly decide when to start spring
migration. Species that migrate from tropical wintering grounds, such as
south of the Sahel, to temperate breeding grounds, may arrive at
inappropriate times and unsuccessfully compete with other wildlife.

''Climate change may thus be a serious threat to species,'' it said.

The second study provides a unique set of ''nontraditional'' data based on an
84-year betting contest held on a frozen Alaskan river. Known as the Nenana
Ice Classic, people in the small remote town of Nenana, Alaska have been
betting money every year since 1917 on when a wooden tripod erected on the
frozen Tenana River will fall through the thawing ice.

Researchers at Stanford University compared the Ice Classic contest records
with available climate data for the area and found that ice breakup occurs on
average five days earlier than it did in 1917.

Raphael Sagarin, one of the researchers who co-authored the study, told IPS
that the article underscores the importance of amateur naturalists, hobbyists
and indigenous peoples who have collected observational data on nature over
long periods of time.

From these records, he said, scientists now have many examples that show that
the natural world has been responding to climate warming.

''Amateur naturalists have been so important in our ability to understand how
climate change has affected natural systems because scientists for the most
part weren't keeping these data,'' said Sagarin.

Most scientists believe that carbon dioxide and other heat- trapping
greenhouse gases, emitted when oil, gas and coal are burned, are causing the
gradual rise of Earth's air surface temperature.

In January, an international group of scientists known as the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted that the average
surface air temperature of the planet would rise by 1.4-5.8 degrees Celsius
by the year 2100 relative to 1990. Average sea level worldwide is projected
to rise by 0.09-0.88 meters by 2100.

The panel, in conclusions supported by the studies released Thursday, said
many species of mammals, invertebrates, reptiles, birds, amphibians and
insects already are being affected.

Many natural ecosystems - including glaciers, coral reefs, mangroves, and
polar regions - are vulnerable to these changes and some will be irreversibly
damaged, it said.

Hoping to slow the warming, representatives from hundreds of countries will
meet in Marrakech next week to translate into legal text the agreement made
in July on the Kyoto Protocol on climate change. This would enable countries
to ratify the treaty and turn it into international law.

In July, governments from 178 countries formally adopted a political
agreement on the rules for implementing the Kyoto Protocol. The accord, named
after the Japanese city where it was drawn up, calls for the 38
industrialized nations to reduce, by 2012, their combined annual greenhouse
gas emissions to an average of 5.2 percent below their 1990 levels.

The European Union, Canada, Iceland, New Zealand, and Norway have said they
will ratify the agreement while Japan has said it wants to see the agreement
come into force by 2002. Australia and the United States - the world's
leading emitter of greenhouse gases - said they would not ratify the treaty.

Global warming alert issued for U.S. Gulf states

Thursday, October 25, 2001
By Environmental News Network

The Sunshine Skyway Bridge looking across the tidal flats towards St.
Petersburg, Fla.

Conflicts over fresh water are in the future for the five U.S. states that
border the Gulf of Mexico, a new report from the Union of Concerned
Scientists predicts.
The study on the impacts of global warming was conducted by scientists from
the Gulf states: Florida, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and Texas. It
details potential threats to the region's agriculture, forestry, shipping,
and tourism industries.

"Climate change will likely magnify the harmful side effects of human
activity on the region's environment," said the lead author of the report,
Dr. Robert Twilley of the University of Louisiana-Lafayette. "Our natural
resources contribute more than $160 billion a year to the region's economy.
We must act now to protect our valuable heritage."

"Confronting Climate Change in the Gulf Coast Region: Prospects for
Sustaining Our Ecological Heritage" is a joint effort by the Ecological
Society of America and the Union of Concerned Scientists. The report
represents the current state of scientific knowledge about the impacts of
climate change on the Gulf Coast's unique environments.

Using the work of climate scientists worldwide, Gulf states scientists
projected a temperature rise in the region of three to seven degrees
Fahrenheit during the 21st century.

This degree of warming will lead to more extreme rainfall events and longer
dry periods, accelerating sea level rise, coastal flooding, and northward
extension of ranges of nonnative plants and animals, the scientists found.

"This report is a wake-up call to everyone in the Gulf region that climate
change is real and must be taken seriously," said Dr. Denise Reed from the
University of New Orleans. "Problems with freshwater supplies for
agriculture, industry, and urban areas are likely to get worse."

Global warming is linked to the emission of gases that trap the heat of the
Sun's rays close to Earth by forming a layer in the atmosphere that functions
the way the roof of a greenhouse keeps the Sun's warmth within.

Carbon dioxide is the major greenhouse gas, and most scientists worldwide
agree that carbon dioxide pollution emitted from fossil fueled power plants
and motor vehicles is contributing to rising global temperatures and a
changing climate.

The ongoing deforestatation in both northern and tropical countries
contributes to global warming by removing the trees who would otherwise
absorb the excess carbon dioxide emitted by burning fossil fuels: coal, oil,
and gas.

Besides carbon dioxide, contributors to global warming include ozone in the
high atmosphere, methane, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons
(HFCs), perfluorocarbons, sulphur hexafluoride, nitrous oxide, and black
carbon (soot) particles.

The Gulf states scientists conclude that the effect of global warming on
their region may intensify its historically variable and sometimes extreme
climate and threatens to undermine the efforts along the coast to restore
wetlands and beaches.

Accelerated sea level rise brought about by melting polar ice caps together
with local land subsidence could lead to higher ocean levels by the end of
the 21st century, the report says. In Texas, a mid-range sea-level rise
figure "would result in ocean levels 17 inches higher by 2100."

Salt-water intrusion in coastal groundwater sources — a problem already
occurring during droughts — is likely to increase as sea level rises.
Rationing of groundwater withdrawal may become more common, the scientists
say.

If the climate becomes drier in the future, a change in the intensity and
frequency of wildfires is likely to result in severe impacts on the timber
industry in the region. If the climate becomes wetter, on the other hand, the
region's forestry industry could also be threatened by a higher incidence of
pests such as the Southern pine bark beetle.

Agriculture, crucial to the Gulf states' economy, might also have to deal
with increased pest incidence, droughts, and fires. While fewer freeze events
and higher carbon dioxide concentrations would have positive implications for
the industry, the challenges to meet the water needs of crops will be
increasingly serious, even if rainfall stays at current levels, the new
report predicts.

Public health in the region is not immune to the threats of a changing
climate, the scientists warn. Increased maximum summer temperatures and heat
index increases could give rise to more frequent heat waves and more
heat-related illnesses and deaths each year.

Higher temperatures would lead to increased production of ground-level ozone
— smog — which, when combined with higher concentrations of air pollutants
and higher pollen counts, could seriously compromise air quality, the study
says.

Higher water temperatures and increased salinity in estuarine waters could
also increase viral and bacterial contamination of shellfish along the Gulf
Coast, negatively impacting the recreational and commercial fishing
industries.

But the scientists say the outlook is not hopeless. "Prudent steps now to
protect our land and water resources can pay big dividends in the future,"
said Dr. Susanne Moser, staff scientist for the Union of Concerned
Scientists, a Massachusetts-based organization that coordinated the study.
"Leaders from Corpus Christi to the Florida Keys should act without delay to
minimize the impacts of climate change," she urged.

The report suggests that reducing emissions of carbon dioxide by reducing the
dependence on fossil fuels would reduce global-warming gas emissions. The
development of clean energy sources would create jobs and new economic
opportunities for region.

By implementing the best practices in land and water resource use, policy and
decision makers can minimize ecologically harmful side effects of climate
change.

Ecological scientists from the University of Louisiana-Lafayette, University
of New Orleans, University of Alabama, Rice University, the University of
Florida, University of South Florida, and University of Miami wrote the
report jointly with scientists from two federal government agencies, the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

US energy bill, Alaska plans, may wait until 2002
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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USA: October 26, 2001

WASHINGTON - The Senate may not have time to vote on a broad energy bill
before Congress adjourns next month because the anthrax scare on Capitol Hill
has slowed most legislation, the chairman of the Senate Energy Committee said
yesterday.

Such a delay would leave hanging in the balance the Bush administration's
hope to decrease reliance on foreign oil by opening up the Alaskan Wildlife
Reserve to drilling.
As it now stands, the House passed a bill in August supporting Bush's Alaska
plan, leaving Senate Democrats who oppose it, and Senate Republicans who
support it, to work out their differences.

"The events of the last week have made it less likely that we would get time
to seriously consider an energy bill on the Senate floor," Jeff Bingaman, the
New Mexico senator who heads the committee, told reporters.

The closing of Senate and House office buildings for the last week because of
anthrax fears has shut down congressional hearings and slowed most
legislation.

Bingaman said once energy committee staff are allowed back into their
offices, within seven to 10 days later he hopes they will finalize an energy
bill that would be presented to Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle.

It would then be up to Daschle to schedule the bill for a Senate floor vote.
Lawmakers are hoping to adjourn next month and return to work next January.

Even though time is running out for the Senate to act this year, Bingaman
said he will not scale back his energy bill and still wants comprehensive
legislation that boosts domestic energy supplies and promotes energy
conservation.

"We're not trying to doing energy-lite," he said.

Bingaman said the energy bill will likely have between $15 billion and $20
billion in energy tax incentives, though he declined to elaborate.

Those tax incentives are being drawn up by the Senate Finance Committee and
will be presented to Daschle, who will then decide which ones will be
included in the energy bill.

Noticeably absent from Bingaman's bill will be language to open the Arctic
National Wildlife Refuge to drilling.

Sen. Frank Murkowski of Alaska and other Senate republicans plan to unveil
their counter energy bill yesterday that would give oil firms access to the
refuge.

In early August, the House of Representatives passed its broad energy bill
that would open the refuge.

Bingaman declined to comment on the merits of the Republican bill, except to
say that once that legislation is introduced the measure "goes on the
(Senate) calendar and it stays there."

Republicans claim they have a simple majority in the Senate to pass such a
bill, but Daschle has told them they must get the 60 votes needed to end a
threatened filibuster by Democratic lawmakers who oppose drilling in the
refuge.

Republicans won't say if they have the critical 60 votes, but they claim that
since the Sept. 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon other
lawmakers that were against opening the refuge now favor the idea in order
reduce oil imports from the volatile Middle East and secure U.S. crude
supplies.

"Nobody has told me they are switching," Bingaman said.

Government estimates say the Arctic refuge could hold as much as 16 billion
barrels of oil, enough to replace the amount of crude the United States
imports from Iraq for 70 years.

REUTERS NEWS SERVICE

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